Within the remaining installment of our David vs. Goliath sequence, Denzil Wilks, a veteran sports activities administrator and former Normal Supervisor of the Sports activities Growth Basis, depends on intestine instincts, logic, and his huge data and expertise in monitor and area to make predictions as to Jamaica’s efficiency on the 2024 Paris Summer season Olympic Video games taking place now.
Observe and Area has its personal idiosyncrasies, and every season brings its personal peculiarities. For instance, Shericka Jackson was “shelling down” the place in 2023 throughout the Diamond League circuit, and there was little doubt that she was in high kind. On the whole, this has not been the case in 2024, actually not for Shelly Ann Fraser Pryce and Shericka, each of whom didn’t start competing till properly into the monitor and area season.
Even the Individuals, for instance, Sha’Carri Richardson, hit the circuit comparatively late. This makes it much more difficult for many who attempt to predict winners and medalists in these international championships. This may be onerous sufficient even in the most common circumstances, however the thriller of prophesying will all the time appeal to the aficionados and followers.
I’ve no intention of making an attempt to foretell on all races. This sequence, on the danger of being accused of being parochial, is weighted in favour of the Jamaica/USA rivalry.
Males’s Observe & Area Predictions
100m – Gold
Jamaica first challenged the USA on this occasion in 1952, when the legendary Herb McKenley had a blanket end with Lindy Remigino, ending second. Herb believed he received. The subsequent actual problem was in 1968 when Lennox “Billy” Miller, operating in white as a substitute of the black, inexperienced, and gold, cut up Jim Hines and Charles Inexperienced for an additional silver in Mexico. That “operating in white” was the results of a significant protest by the group of athletes as a result of Herbert McDonald, a sport administrator, was given the honour of carrying the flag on the Video games for Jamaica as a substitute of certainly one of our athletes. I say no extra on that at this juncture.
The problem was maintained in 1972, when the identical Lennox Miller completed third in Munich, with the Individuals getting the silver medal behind Valery Borzov of the then USSR. This feat by Miller represented the primary repeat medal within the 100m on the Olympics. Jamaica featured once more in 1976 as Donald Quarrie, who attended each the 1968 and 1972 Olympiads however didn’t compete on account of damage, lastly got here good with a silver medal as Hasley Crawford of Trinidad and Tobago received and Borzov received the bronze, thus shutting out the Individuals.
Jamaica didn’t hit the rostrum once more till 2008, despite the fact that Raymond Stewart made the finals in 1984 and 1988.
After lightning struck in 2008, the reverberations continued till 2016. Sadly for the USA, even after the departure of Bolt in 2016, it was Italian Marcel Jacobs who triumphed in 2021 (2020). 2024 is heading for a battle royal.
Noah Lyles has been probably the most energetic contestant on the circuit and is the World Champion. Jacobs, as defending champion, has solely proven indicators of energy within the final two months. The Africans, significantly Omanyala of Kenya and Simbine of South Africa. Fred Kerley and Kenny Bednarek of the USA have additionally proven themselves to be aggressive. Indirect Seville shocked Lyles on the Racers Grand Prix with what was then the quickest time for the 12 months, 9.82. Andre DeGrasse has historical past on his aspect, however his instances haven’t been spectacular so far.
Kishane Thompson inheritor to Bolt’s throne?
Then got here Kishane Thompson! Seemingly like a bolt (pun not meant) from the blue. Now we’re recalling his transient look on the 2023 Nationwide Championships, when he received his warmth in 9.91 however didn’t return for the semi-finals. This 12 months he went all the way in which and is now the Nationwide Champion with 9.77, which makes him the ninth quickest man in historical past. The obvious ease with which he received has resulted in him being put in because the favorite.
Zharnel Hughes and Akeem Blake should be contemplated as properly. Nonetheless, Hughes was injured in the midst of the season and is simply beginning to compete once more.
The last word legend, Usain Bolt, all the time emphasised the necessity for aggressive sharpness. One can query whether or not Thompson has sufficient of that and, in contrast, whether or not Lyles is overexposed. Seville has two 4th place finishes on the highest stage. This expertise of competing at a excessive stage could be seen as a web optimistic for Seville or as an indication of his lack of ability to ship when it actually issues, which dogged Asafa Powell all through his profession.
Noah Lyles talks sport however Seville will triumph
From a consistency perspective, Lyles has the sting. Nonetheless, primarily based on sheer appears, Thompson appears to be a critical challenger. Seville has proven that he can beat Lyles, and this can’t be ignored. These three, subsequently, are my high predictions for podium finishers.
I can’t assist however pay attention to the truth that, as nice because the MVP and Stephen Francis have been, they haven’t but produced a worldwide male champion. The truth is, that’s the curiosity surrounding Jamaica’s two most excellent coaches. Glen Mills has not produced a worldwide feminine champion. And so, going purely primarily based on instincts, my alternative is Seville on the day.
200m, 400m, 800m – No medals
We’re entered on this occasion, however with the Nationwide Champion having solely simply gone under 20 seconds, it’s not anticipated that we are able to make it to the ultimate on this occasion.
With out the defending 400m World Champion Antonio Watson, Jamaica nonetheless managed to have the highest three finishers on the Nationwide Trials operating below 45 seconds. The highest contenders, nevertheless, have gone under 44 seconds. I recommend that Jamaica will not be in rivalry for a medal on this occasion.
The point out of the 800m right here is only in due deference to Dr. the Honourable Arthur Wint, who received silver medals within the 1948 and 1952 Olympics. George Kerr carried the mantle for some time, after which there was Alex McDonald, however Jamaica has not medaled on the highest stage on this occasion since then. The reality is, exterior of a miracle, Jamaica is not going to contend and isn’t anticipated to function within the remaining both.
4x100m relay – Silver
One other historic battleground between the Jamaicans and the USA, however the British and Canadians shouldn’t be dominated out because the baton should go round to realize victory. Bednarek, Kerley, Coleman, and Lyles can problem any quartet throughout the globe. So can Blake (Akeem), Seville, Levell, and Thompson. The passing of the baton would be the figuring out issue, and this isn’t one thing that may be the topic of correct prediction. The sheer expertise of the Individuals offers them the nod for me.
Lengthy Bounce – Gold
For the primary time in historical past, Jamaica shall be represented by three males who, on their finest day, can contend for a medal. Tajay Gayle has received on the World Championships, Wayne Pinnock has a World Championships silver medal, and Carey McLeod, with a better of 8.40 metres, can problem for a medal. Miltiadis Tentoglou of Greece is the obvious favorite, and Simon Ehammer of Switzerland is a major contender.
Primarily based on kind in addition to the sheer potential of the Jamaicans, I’m predicting two medals on this occasion, with a gold medal on provide by way of Pinnock.
Triple Bounce – Gold
Jamaica has not, within the pre-Covid-19 interval, contended on the highest stage on this occasion. There is no such thing as a historical past of even qualifying rivals for Triple Bounce at this stage. Come 2023, and from out of left area comes a teen who’s an absolute prodigy.
Jayden Hibbert, on the tender age of 18, leaves highschool and is absolutely certified for college within the USA. So he’s greater than sound intellectually. By now he has damaged quite a few data, together with the World Beneath-20 file each indoors and outside. He received each lengthy leap and triple leap on the CARIFTA Video games in 2021.
“With 17.15 m the automated qualifier, solely 18-year-old world chief Jaydon Hibbert was in a position to muster such a distance; his 17.70 m far outdistanced that requirement.”. That is the report on the 2023 World Championships primarily based on Wikipedia.
Sadly, he was not in a position to leap within the remaining as he picked up an damage. The successful leap was 17.64 metres. Hibbert’s effort was higher than some other however completed exterior of the official remaining contest. He’s in Paris, and all indications are that he’s wholesome. He’s nonetheless very younger and never as seasoned when it comes to competitors on the highest stage.
The Cubans have a powerful hand on this occasion with Lázaro Martinez and Cristian Nápoles, and Hugues Fabrice Zango of Burkina Faso is the reigning World Champion. Zango has gone over 18 metres, however the runners-up from the World Championships haven’t gone to the distances that Hibbert has jumped.
18.0 metres will not be a distance jumped frequently, and Hibbert has not ventured there as but. Bias however, his youthfulness and enthusiasm are positives, and he has my vote for victory. I’m not anticipating some other Jamaican figuring on this one.
400m Hurdles – Finals
Karsten Warholm of Norway, Rai Benjamin of the USA, and Allison Dos Santos of Brazil have gone locations the place no different 400m hurdler has gone. The highest 17 instances in historical past are shared by these three. Just one different present competitor, Abderrahman Samba of Mauritania, has gone under 47 seconds.
Veteran Jaheel Hyde and Younger Turks Malik James-King and Roshawn Clarke are Jamaica’s normal bearers on this occasion. Of the three, James King and Clarke have gone under 47.5. It’s my thought-about view that these latter two will make it to the ultimate. I’m not, nevertheless, anticipating a medal on this one.
110m Hurdles – Silver & Bronze
Grant Holloway of the USA has dominated this occasion for the final 5 years. He’s a three-time World Champion, however he isn’t the Olympic Champion. Hansle Parchment has been medaling on the highest stage since 2012.
Hansle is the defending champion, and he appears to be rounding into kind on the proper time. The Individuals are all the time highly effective on this occasion, and so are the Jamaicans, with 2024 being no completely different. Rasheed Broadbell and Orlando Bennett will accompany Hansle to symbolize Jamaica, and ambitiously, I count on all three to make it to the finals.
Beating Holloway goes to be troublesome on account of his great begin and sheer high quality. Parchment, however, normally takes a little bit of time to unfurl his 6’5” body however then comes on like a freight prepare in the direction of the tip. Broadbell and Bennett are exuding confidence and will shock.
This evaluation doesn’t ponder being exhaustive, and there’s a intestine feeling facet that may all the time play a task, logic however. I recommend that Holloway’s starvation will take him residence with Parchment simply lacking a repeat. Broadbell shall be there for the bronze.
Discus – Finals
Longstanding normal bearer Fedrick Dacres didn’t make it to the Olympics this time round, and that’s uncommon. His longtime associate Traves Smikle is the de facto chief of the Jamaican pack, with two Younger Turks, Roje Stona and Ralford Mullings, in tow. There’s a plethora of largely Europeans, Individuals, and Asians contending.
70 metres is taken into account an indicator of 1 being in with an actual likelihood. Nonetheless, it’s not uncommon for main competitions to be received with a throw of lower than that. I don’t count on this to be the case. Mykolas Alekna of Lithuania is the highest-ranked contender, and Daniel Stahl of Sweden sits at 4th and is all the time harmful.
The Jamaicans haven’t been getting near 70 metres with any consistency, however I count on Smikle and Mullings to make it to the ultimate set, however I don’t stake any declare for a medal right here.
Shot Put – No Medals
Jamaica’s file holder is Rajindra Campbell with a private finest (PB) of twenty-two.16 metres. He sits at quantity 13 within the rankings and has not been persistently over the 22-metre mark. No miracle is anticipated right here, and the Individuals are highly effective.
Girls’s Observe & Area Predictions
100m – Silver & Bronze
Arguably probably the most aggressive occasion in monitor and area on the Olympics, Jamaica goes in with the doyen of feminine sprinting, Shelly Ann Fraser Pryce, on the age of 37. Absolutely the matriarch and a legend in her personal proper. And he or she will not be there out of respect. She is a real contender, not only for a medal however for the top of the rostrum.
Then there’s Shericka Jackson, a veteran herself and definitely a high contender. The Younger Turk right here is Tia Clayton, barely out of highschool however one who has made the transition from highschool dominance to the skilled senior ranks a bit quicker than her twin sister Tina. The latter was the extra dominant in highschool, however such are the vagaries of that transition course of, which remains to be to be studied with the intention to permit for a extra scientific method to the method.
Sitting on the high of the rankings is Sha’Carri Richardson of the USA, and justifiably so primarily based on 2024 occurrences so far. Britain’s Dina Asher-Smith and Daryll Neita, Ivorian Marie-Josée Ta Lou Smith, Poland’s Ewa Swoboda, and St. Lucian Julien Alfred are all real contenders, and the record will not be exhaustive. Uncertainties as to health ranges have added to the monumental problem of selecting a winner.
Sha’Carri in high kind, favorite to win
Primarily based on kind, Sha’Carri needs to be the favorite, however that isn’t what determines issues of this type. When it comes to large events, performer Shelly Ann stands supreme. That is one time when intestine instincts might very properly be one of the best indicator. I recommend that every one three Jamaicans shall be within the remaining and will very properly be within the high 4, however I discover it troublesome to go towards Richardson. That being the case, I select the Matriarch and the Younger Turk for silver and bronze in that order.
We should pause to recollect Elaine Thompson-Herah, the two-time double champion from the final two Olympics, who, on account of damage, will not be round this time. There is no such thing as a one ready to equal this feat of hers, and that’s indicative of the superior nature of her achievement.
200m – Gold
Beneath “regular” circumstances one might simply pencil in Shericka Jackson after which attempt to work out the minor placings. The uncertainties as to her actual kind and the exhibiting of Gabby Thomas of the USA has resulted in contemplations that will not have been there in 2023. The same old suspects Dina Asher-Smith, Julien Alfred, Daryll Neita and Marie-Josée Ta Lou Smith et al are, little question, lurking to pounce on the slightest detection of weak spot.
That is the place Shericka is most dominant and I again her to take victory with Thomas and Asher-Smith for silver and bronze respectively.
400m – Gold
For the primary time in a long time, Jamaica has a favorite contender for gold within the ladies’s 400m.
Traditionally, Marilyn Neufville, Sandie Richards, Grace Jackson, Lorraine Fenton-Graham, Stephanie Ann McPherson, and lately Shericka Williams and Shericka Jackson are a few of the names that come to thoughts as 400m contenders. However by no means earlier than has there been one so precocious as to have the main time approaching a world occasion.
The truth is, only a few ladies have gone into the mid-to-low 48+ seconds area. Nickisha Pryce has not solely claimed the Jamaican nationwide file however now sits at quantity 10 on the all-time bests for this much-heralded occasion.
Within the absence of the Bahamian Shaunae Miller-Uibo, Marileidy Paulino of the Dominican Republic has been the dominant 400m runner, however Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone of the USA, who, with the second quickest time for the 12 months, has opted to focus on the 400m hurdles and the 4x400m relay. The identical could be mentioned of Femke Bol of the Netherlands, the indoor file holder for 400m.
I’m positively going out on the limb for Pryce on this one. I used to be apprehensive about her workload on the USA NCAA circuit, however I’m below the impression that she is being managed astutely, and so I say gold.
I count on Stacy Ann Williams to make the ultimate however to not medal.
The relay ought to be attention-grabbing. The Individuals are considerably aggressive, however it appears Paulino and Perry have separated themselves. Natalia Kaczmarek of Poland, Sada Williams of Barbados, Rhasidat Adeleke of Eire, and Lieke Klaver of the Netherlands are some who will contend, and in athletics upsets are only a step away.
800m – Finals
Athing Mu’s fall within the US Trials has taken out a large contender in an already stacked area. Mary Moraa of Kenya and Keely Hodgkinson of Nice Britain are the 2 left from the World Championship podium, after which there’s Alemu of Ethiopia and Akins of the USA, all critical contenders.
Natoya Goule-Toppin lately ran a powerful 1:56.83 in London. Sadly, it solely obtained her to 4th place. This three-time Olympian has been a stalwart for Jamaica on this occasion however has not but climbed onto the rostrum at a world occasion.
This time round, it is going to be as troublesome as all the opposite instances. I count on her to make the ultimate, however I don’t envisage a medal.
100m Hurdles – Silver & Bronze
Jamaica has fairly a file of efficiency on this occasion, however within the Olympics, one of the best efficiency has been by the diminutive Megan Tapper with a bronze on the Tokyo Video games held in 2021 on account of COVID-19. This can be a little bit of a shocker, as Brigitte Foster-Hylton has struck gold on the World Championships, as has Danielle Williams.
Megan didn’t make it this time, however Jamaica shall be properly represented by Ackera Nugent, Danielle Williams, and Janeek Brown. All three American qualifiers have gone below 12.4 seconds, with Masai Russell having the world main time of 12.25. Then there are Tobi Amusan of Nigeria, Jasmine Camacho Quinn of Puerto Rico, and Devynne Charlton of the Bahamas.
Jamaica’s two robust factors are that Nugent has hit high kind on the proper time and Danielle Williams is a seasoned fighter with all of the grit required for instances like these. All issues thought-about, I choose Amusan for gold and Nugent for silver. The battle for the bronze will rage, and I recommend that Williams will prevail.
400m Hurdles – Bronze
Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone appears to have taken this occasion as her private possession in recent times, and despite the fact that Femke Bol has threatened considerably from a distance, it is going to be onerous for others to problem these two and for anybody to actually prolong McLaughlin-Levrone.
Jamaica’s Rushell Clayton has established herself as a fighter, and I’m suggesting that she’s going to take the bronze. Anna Cockrel and Jasmine Jones of the USA have each gone below 53 seconds, however I consider Clayton will prevail.
4x100m Relay – Gold
The calibre of the Jamaican dash relay group is unmatched. There is no such thing as a denying the standard of the USA within the relays, and the British are additionally most worthy of consideration. Nonetheless, the energy, depth, and expertise of the seemingly Jamaican quartet of Tia Clayton Shericka Jackson, Natasha Morrison, and Queen Shelly Ann will take them to the highest of the rostrum as an acceptable send-off for the Queen Mom.
4x400m Relay – Gold
The Individuals have taken management of this occasion for probably the most half over time. After all there have been upsets, however because the 2008 Video games, the USA has prevailed persistently. Apparently, the highest three finishers within the 400m on the USA Trials all ran below 50 seconds, whereas within the case of Jamaica, nobody went below 50 seconds.
This sort of logic can’t be used as the one figuring out indicator of victory. What Nickisha Pryce has completed because the trials is sufficient of an indicator of how issues can change. I’m predicting gold for Jamaica on this occasion as Pryce, I count on, may have an American to chase and can repeat the feat of Novelene Williams-Mills within the 2015 World Championships.
Triple Bounce – Gold
Shanieka Ricketts has been carrying the triple leap flag for Jamaica together with Kimberly Williams for shut to 10 years, and he or she, specifically, has carried it with distinction.
Venezuelan Yulimar Rojas Rodriguez, the perennial favorite on this occasion, will not be in a position to defend her title on account of damage. In her absence, Leyanis Pérez Hernández of Cuba and Ricketts might very properly be frontrunners for the title. Dominican Thea Lafond can also be in with an opportunity.
I’m backing the battle-hardened Ricketts to prevail.
Different Area Occasions
Combined Relays
Jamaica will contest the combined relay, and I consider that the runners will give a wonderful account of themselves. Making an attempt to foretell the end result of this occasion could be very troublesome, as assessing the rivals is a difficult train because the occasion will not be repeatedly contested.
Shot put
Danniel Thomas-Dodd has completed properly in shot put via the years, however her failure to persistently throw over 20 metres means that she is not going to contend for a medal.
1500 m
Jamaica shall be represented within the 1500m ladies, however right here once more I don’t anticipate Aisha Praught Leer with the ability to make it to the ultimate, extra so in gentle of her operating with a torn meniscus.
Highest Medal Haul Ever?
The upshot of all these prognostications means that Jamaica will find yourself with its highest medal haul ever with 18, comprising 8 gold, 4 silver, and 6 bronze to complete 2nd or at the very least third place on the monitor and area medal desk.
Traditionally, this may be described as questionable. Nonetheless, I stand by the methodology and hope for the realisation of our greatest efficiency so far. The energy within the area is the true sport changer, and we await the outcomes.
Let the video games start!
