Information Americas, NEW YORK, NY, Tues. Dec. 16, 2025: The outlook for Caribbean growth for 2026 and 2027 factors to a widening divide between resource-driven development and tourism-dependent economies, in response to new projections from the UN Financial Fee for Latin America and the Caribbean, (ECLAC) and the World Financial institution.
ECLAC forecasts common development of 8.2% for the Caribbean in 2026, largely pushed by Guyana’s continued oil enlargement. The World Financial institution tasks 5.7% development for the broader Caribbean economies. Nevertheless, when Guyana is excluded, development throughout the remainder of the subregion is anticipated to gradual sharply to roughly 1.7%, underscoring the area’s structural vulnerabilities.
Guyana is projected to stay the fastest-growing economic system within the Caribbean, with the World Financial institution forecasting 15.7% GDP development in 2026, fueled by sustained funding in hydrocarbons. Against this, a number of tourism-dependent economies face extra average or fragile trajectories. The Bahamas is anticipated to expertise slower development amid comparatively stagnant stayover tourism, whereas Jamaica could face financial contraction in early 2026 following the impression of Hurricane Melissa on tourism and agriculture.
ECLAC warns that the area stays extremely uncovered to exterior shocks, together with slower U.S. financial development, rising vitality and transportation prices, excessive public debt ranges, and rising climate-related dangers. Whereas service exports are anticipated to stay resilient, uncertainty in international commerce, commodity value volatility, and delayed rate of interest cuts by main central banks pose draw back dangers.
The outlook reinforces the necessity for Caribbean economies to diversify past tourism, strengthen resilience, and broaden into higher-value sectors resembling vitality, logistics, meals safety, and digitally delivered companies.
Ranked from Highest to Lowest (2026)
| Rank | Nation | 2026 Development (%) | 2027 Development (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guyana | 23.0 | 24.3 |
| 2 | Dominican Republic | 4.2 | 4.4 |
| 3 | Dominica | 3.4 | 2.8 |
| 4 | Grenada | 3.4 | 2.7 |
| 5 | Suriname | 3.3 | 3.5 |
| 6 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 2.9 | 2.7 |
| 7 | St. Lucia | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| 8 | Barbados | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| 9 | Jamaica | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| 10 | Trinidad and Tobago | 1.3 | 3.2 |
| 11 | Bahamas | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| 12 | Belize | 1.1 | 1.1 |
Supply: World Financial institution
Within the Caribbean, growth is forecast at 5.8% in 2026, led overwhelmingly by Guyana’s oil sector enlargement. Excluding Guyana, regional development is anticipated to gradual to roughly 3.1% in 2026, highlighting the rising divergence between resource-driven economies and tourism-dependent states.
Felicia J. Persaud, CEO of Invest Caribbean, reacting to the World Financial institution’s International Financial forecast information, mentioned: “The time to spend money on the Caribbean is now – and the information clearly helps it. For too lengthy, the area has been underestimated. The numbers present a Caribbean that’s resilient, investable, and more and more central to international development and capital flows.”
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